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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200107-200109

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
5
7
0
12
2
10
21
33
7
17
21
45

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
10
10
14
34
2
10
21
33
12
20
35
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
11
16
0
27
4
22
47
73
16
38
47
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
15
15
21
51
3
15
31
49
18
30
52
100

hitrate: 0.622 hitrate: 0.463
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.71 1.57
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.70 0.94
Heidke skill score: 0.433 Heidke skill score: 0.194
true Heidke skill score: 0.322 true Heidke skill score: 0.091
Kuipers skill score: 0.433 Kuipers skill score: 0.194
true Kuipers skill score: 0.291 true Kuipers skill score: 0.089
threat score:
0.000 0.318 0.636
threat score:
0.000 0.227 0.447
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.141 0.318
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.004 0.126
probability of detection:
0.000 0.412 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.500 0.600
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.417 0.364
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.706 0.364
samples: 45 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 67.16 %coverage: 100.00