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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200107-200109

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
5
4
1
10
2
9
18
29
7
13
19
39

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
10
11
17
38
2
9
18
29
12
20
35
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
13
10
3
26
5
23
46
74
18
33
49
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
15
16
25
57
3
13
27
43
18
30
52
100

hitrate: 0.564 hitrate: 0.433
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.77 1.53
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.90 0.83
Heidke skill score: 0.346 Heidke skill score: 0.149
true Heidke skill score: 0.211 true Heidke skill score: 0.062
Kuipers skill score: 0.346 Kuipers skill score: 0.149
true Kuipers skill score: 0.188 true Kuipers skill score: 0.062
threat score:
0.000 0.211 0.600
threat score:
0.000 0.234 0.391
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.043 0.244
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.010 0.092
probability of detection:
0.000 0.308 0.947
probability of detection:
0.000 0.550 0.514
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.600 0.379
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.711 0.379
samples: 39 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 58.21 %coverage: 100.00