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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200107-200109

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
8
4
17
2
3
3
8
3
2
3
8
10
13
10
33

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
8
4
17
4
10
28
42
3
2
3
8
12
20
35
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
15
24
12
52
6
9
9
24
9
6
9
24
30
39
30
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
12
6
25
6
15
42
63
4
3
4
12
18
30
52
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.269
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.70 0.62 0.80
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.42 2.10 0.23
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: -0.097
true Heidke skill score: 0.012 true Heidke skill score: -0.037
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: -0.097
true Kuipers skill score: 0.013 true Kuipers skill score: -0.043
threat score:
0.227 0.167 0.200
threat score:
0.208 0.192 0.075
equitable threat score:
-0.009 -0.010 0.046
equitable threat score:
0.093 -0.064 -0.033
probability of detection:
0.500 0.231 0.300
probability of detection:
0.417 0.500 0.086
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.706 0.625 0.625
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.706 0.762 0.625
samples: 33 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 49.25 %coverage: 100.00