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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200107-200109

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
8
4
17
2
2
3
7
2
1
0
3
9
11
7
27

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
8
4
17
5
11
31
47
2
1
0
3
12
20
35
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
19
30
15
63
7
7
11
26
7
4
0
11
33
41
26
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
12
6
25
7
16
46
70
3
1
0
4
18
30
52
100

hitrate: 0.259 hitrate: 0.239
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.89 0.64 0.43
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.42 2.35 0.09
Heidke skill score: -0.111 Heidke skill score: -0.142
true Heidke skill score: -0.130 true Heidke skill score: -0.055
Kuipers skill score: -0.111 Kuipers skill score: -0.142
true Kuipers skill score: -0.130 true Kuipers skill score: -0.065
threat score:
0.238 0.125 0.000
threat score:
0.208 0.196 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.043 -0.065 -0.084
equitable threat score:
0.093 -0.072 -0.043
probability of detection:
0.556 0.182 0.000
probability of detection:
0.417 0.550 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.706 0.714 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.706 0.766 1.000
samples: 27 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 40.30 %coverage: 100.00