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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200107-200109

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 5.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
8
4
14
0
1
4
5
1
1
5
7
3
10
13
26

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
8
4
14
9
11
26
46
1
1
5
7
12
20
35
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
8
31
15
54
0
4
15
19
4
4
19
27
12
38
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
12
6
21
13
16
39
69
1
1
7
10
18
30
52
100

hitrate: 0.308 hitrate: 0.269
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
4.67 0.50 0.54
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.17 2.30 0.20
Heidke skill score: -0.038 Heidke skill score: -0.097
true Heidke skill score: 0.051 true Heidke skill score: -0.040
Kuipers skill score: -0.038 Kuipers skill score: -0.097
true Kuipers skill score: 0.063 true Kuipers skill score: -0.047
threat score:
0.133 0.071 0.333
threat score:
0.083 0.200 0.135
equitable threat score:
0.029 -0.076 0.130
equitable threat score:
-0.024 -0.066 0.040
probability of detection:
0.667 0.100 0.385
probability of detection:
0.167 0.550 0.143
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.857 0.800 0.286
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.857 0.761 0.286
samples: 26 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 38.81 %coverage: 100.00