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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200107-200109

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
9
11
1
1
9
11

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
11
19
26
56
1
1
9
11
12
20
35
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
9
9
82
100
9
9
82
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
16
28
39
84
1
1
13
16
18
30
52
100

hitrate: 0.818 hitrate: 0.418
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 1.22
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.80 0.31
Heidke skill score: 0.727 Heidke skill score: 0.127
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.124
Kuipers skill score: 0.727 Kuipers skill score: 0.127
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.136
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.818
threat score:
0.000 0.333 0.243
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.057 0.104
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.950 0.257
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.182
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.661 0.182
samples: 11 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 16.42 %coverage: 100.00