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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200107-200109

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
6
8
1
1
6
8

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
11
19
29
59
1
1
6
8
12
20
35
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
13
13
75
100
13
13
75
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
16
28
43
88
1
1
9
12
18
30
52
100

hitrate: 0.750 hitrate: 0.373
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 1.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.95 0.23
Heidke skill score: 0.625 Heidke skill score: 0.060
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.071
Kuipers skill score: 0.625 Kuipers skill score: 0.060
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.079
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.750
threat score:
0.000 0.317 0.162
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.033 0.055
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.950 0.171
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.250
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.678 0.250
samples: 8 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 11.94 %coverage: 100.00