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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200107-200109

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
5
7
1
1
5
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
11
19
30
60
1
1
5
7
12
20
35
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
14
14
71
100
14
14
71
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
16
28
45
90
1
1
7
10
18
30
52
100

hitrate: 0.714 hitrate: 0.358
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 1.40
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.00 0.20
Heidke skill score: 0.571 Heidke skill score: 0.037
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.054
Kuipers skill score: 0.571 Kuipers skill score: 0.037
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.060
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.714
threat score:
0.000 0.311 0.135
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.025 0.040
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.950 0.143
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.286
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.683 0.286
samples: 7 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 10.45 %coverage: 100.00