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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200107-200109

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
1
2
0
0
0
0
1
1
5
7
2
1
6
9

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
1
2
10
19
29
58
1
1
5
7
12
20
35
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
0
11
22
0
0
0
0
11
11
56
78
22
11
67
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
1
3
15
28
43
87
1
1
7
10
18
30
52
100

hitrate: 0.667 hitrate: 0.373
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.00 1.17
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.17 2.90 0.20
Heidke skill score: 0.500 Heidke skill score: 0.060
true Heidke skill score: 0.229 true Heidke skill score: 0.080
Kuipers skill score: 0.500 Kuipers skill score: 0.060
true Kuipers skill score: 0.200 true Kuipers skill score: 0.090
threat score:
0.333 0.000 0.625
threat score:
0.077 0.322 0.135
equitable threat score:
0.217 0.000 0.100
equitable threat score:
0.051 0.040 0.040
probability of detection:
0.500 0.000 0.833
probability of detection:
0.083 0.950 0.143
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.000 0.286
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.672 0.286
samples: 9 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 13.43 %coverage: 100.00