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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200108-200110

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
1
0
11
12
1
1
11
13

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
14
19
22
55
1
0
11
12
15
19
33
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
8
0
8
8
0
85
92
8
8
85
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
21
28
33
82
1
0
16
18
22
28
49
100

hitrate: 0.923 hitrate: 0.448
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.00 1.09
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.89 0.36
Heidke skill score: 0.885 Heidke skill score: 0.172
true Heidke skill score: 0.639 true Heidke skill score: 0.187
Kuipers skill score: 0.885 Kuipers skill score: 0.172
true Kuipers skill score: 0.500 true Kuipers skill score: 0.202
threat score:
0.000 1.000 0.917
threat score:
0.000 0.345 0.324
equitable threat score:
0.000 1.000 0.458
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.086 0.181
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.083
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.655 0.083
samples: 13 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 19.40 %coverage: 100.00