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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200108-200110

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
1
2
4
1
0
8
9
2
1
10
13

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
14
19
25
58
1
0
8
9
15
19
33
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
8
8
15
31
8
0
62
69
15
8
77
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
21
28
37
87
1
0
12
13
22
28
49
100

hitrate: 0.692 hitrate: 0.403
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 4.00 0.90
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.05 0.27
Heidke skill score: 0.538 Heidke skill score: 0.104
true Heidke skill score: 0.307 true Heidke skill score: 0.133
Kuipers skill score: 0.538 Kuipers skill score: 0.104
true Kuipers skill score: 0.359 true Kuipers skill score: 0.146
threat score:
0.000 0.250 0.727
threat score:
0.000 0.328 0.235
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.188 0.264
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.061 0.121
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.800
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.242
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.750 0.111
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.672 0.111
samples: 13 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 19.40 %coverage: 100.00