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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200108-200110

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
4
17
24
3
4
17
24

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
12
15
16
43
3
4
17
24
15
19
33
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
13
17
71
100
13
17
71
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
18
22
24
64
4
6
25
36
22
28
49
100

hitrate: 0.708 hitrate: 0.478
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 1.41
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.26 0.73
Heidke skill score: 0.562 Heidke skill score: 0.216
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.186
Kuipers skill score: 0.562 Kuipers skill score: 0.216
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.190
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.708
threat score:
0.000 0.319 0.425
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.081 0.184
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.789 0.515
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.292
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.651 0.292
samples: 24 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 35.82 %coverage: 100.00