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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200108-200110

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
4
3
11
18
4
3
12
19

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
11
16
22
49
4
3
11
18
15
19
33
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
5
5
21
16
58
95
21
16
63
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
16
24
33
73
6
4
16
27
22
28
49
100

hitrate: 0.579 hitrate: 0.403
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.33 1.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.58 0.55
Heidke skill score: 0.368 Heidke skill score: 0.104
true Heidke skill score: -0.070 true Heidke skill score: 0.096
Kuipers skill score: 0.368 Kuipers skill score: 0.104
true Kuipers skill score: -0.052 true Kuipers skill score: 0.101
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.579
threat score:
0.000 0.308 0.275
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.041 -0.048
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.055 0.069
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.917
probability of detection:
0.000 0.842 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.389
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.673 0.389
samples: 19 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 28.36 %coverage: 100.00