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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200108-200110

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
9
11
1
1
9
11

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
14
18
24
56
1
1
9
11
15
19
33
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
9
9
82
100
9
9
82
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
21
27
36
84
1
1
13
16
22
28
49
100

hitrate: 0.818 hitrate: 0.403
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 1.22
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.95 0.33
Heidke skill score: 0.727 Heidke skill score: 0.104
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.125
Kuipers skill score: 0.727 Kuipers skill score: 0.104
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.136
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.818
threat score:
0.000 0.316 0.257
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.052 0.121
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.947 0.273
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.182
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.679 0.182
samples: 11 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 16.42 %coverage: 100.00