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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200109-200111

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
2
0
0
4
4
0
1
5
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
4
20
38
62
0
0
4
4
4
20
42
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
17
17
33
0
0
67
67
0
17
83
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
6
30
58
94
0
0
6
6
6
30
64
100

hitrate: 0.833 hitrate: 0.364
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 2.00 0.80
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.10 0.10
Heidke skill score: 0.750 Heidke skill score: 0.045
true Heidke skill score: 0.571 true Heidke skill score: 0.060
Kuipers skill score: 0.750 Kuipers skill score: 0.045
true Kuipers skill score: 0.800 true Kuipers skill score: 0.081
threat score:
0.000 0.500 0.800
threat score:
0.000 0.323 0.095
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.400 0.400
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.028 0.037
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.800
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.095
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.500 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.677 0.000
samples: 6 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 9.09 %coverage: 100.00