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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200109-200111

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
1
3
4
0
2
3
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
3
20
40
63
0
1
3
4
3
21
43
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
20
0
20
0
20
60
80
0
40
60
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
4
30
60
94
0
1
4
6
4
31
64
100

hitrate: 0.800 hitrate: 0.343
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.50 1.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.00 0.09
Heidke skill score: 0.700 Heidke skill score: 0.015
true Heidke skill score: 0.545 true Heidke skill score: 0.015
Kuipers skill score: 0.700 Kuipers skill score: 0.015
true Kuipers skill score: 0.500 true Kuipers skill score: 0.021
threat score:
0.000 0.500 0.750
threat score:
0.000 0.312 0.068
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.375 0.375
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.006 0.010
probability of detection:
0.000 0.500 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.952 0.070
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.250
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.683 0.250
samples: 5 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 7.46 %coverage: 100.00