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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200109-200111

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
1
6
7
0
2
6
8

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
3
20
37
60
0
1
6
7
3
21
43
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
13
0
13
0
13
75
88
0
25
75
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
4
30
55
90
0
1
9
10
4
31
64
100

hitrate: 0.875 hitrate: 0.388
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.50 1.17
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.86 0.16
Heidke skill score: 0.812 Heidke skill score: 0.082
true Heidke skill score: 0.600 true Heidke skill score: 0.062
Kuipers skill score: 0.812 Kuipers skill score: 0.082
true Kuipers skill score: 0.500 true Kuipers skill score: 0.083
threat score:
0.000 0.500 0.857
threat score:
0.000 0.328 0.136
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.429 0.429
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.028 0.038
probability of detection:
0.000 0.500 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.952 0.140
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.143
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.667 0.143
samples: 8 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 11.94 %coverage: 100.00