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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200109-200111

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
5
7
0
2
5
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
3
19
38
60
0
2
5
7
3
21
43
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
29
71
100
0
29
71
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
4
28
57
90
0
3
7
10
4
31
64
100

hitrate: 0.714 hitrate: 0.358
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 1.40
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.86 0.16
Heidke skill score: 0.571 Heidke skill score: 0.037
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.016
Kuipers skill score: 0.571 Kuipers skill score: 0.037
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.021
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.714
threat score:
0.000 0.306 0.111
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.004 0.013
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.905 0.116
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.286
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.683 0.286
samples: 7 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 10.45 %coverage: 100.00