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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200109-200111

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
2
3
0
1
2
3

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
3
20
41
64
0
1
2
3
3
21
43
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
33
67
100
0
33
67
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
4
30
61
96
0
1
3
4
4
31
64
100

hitrate: 0.667 hitrate: 0.328
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 1.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.05 0.07
Heidke skill score: 0.500 Heidke skill score: -0.007
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.000
Kuipers skill score: 0.500 Kuipers skill score: -0.007
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.667
threat score:
0.000 0.308 0.045
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.001 0.002
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.952 0.047
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.688 0.333
samples: 3 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 4.48 %coverage: 100.00