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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200110-200112

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
1
3
4
0
1
4
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
4
57
62
0
1
3
4
1
5
60
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
20
20
0
20
60
80
0
20
80
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
2
6
86
94
0
2
5
6
2
8
91
100

hitrate: 0.600 hitrate: 0.106
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 1.00 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 12.40 0.07
Heidke skill score: 0.400 Heidke skill score: -0.341
true Heidke skill score: -0.250 true Heidke skill score: -0.023
Kuipers skill score: 0.400 Kuipers skill score: -0.341
true Kuipers skill score: -0.250 true Kuipers skill score: -0.121
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.600
threat score:
0.000 0.063 0.049
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.111 -0.111
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.012 -0.011
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.750
probability of detection:
0.000 0.800 0.050
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.250
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.935 0.250
samples: 5 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 7.58 %coverage: 100.00