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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200110-200112

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
1
4
5
0
1
5
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
4
56
61
0
1
4
5
1
5
60
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
17
17
0
17
67
83
0
17
83
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
2
6
85
92
0
2
6
8
2
8
91
100

hitrate: 0.667 hitrate: 0.121
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 1.00 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 12.20 0.08
Heidke skill score: 0.500 Heidke skill score: -0.318
true Heidke skill score: -0.200 true Heidke skill score: -0.021
Kuipers skill score: 0.500 Kuipers skill score: -0.318
true Kuipers skill score: -0.200 true Kuipers skill score: -0.105
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.667
threat score:
0.000 0.065 0.066
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.091 -0.091
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.011 -0.010
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.800
probability of detection:
0.000 0.800 0.067
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.200
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.934 0.200
samples: 6 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 9.09 %coverage: 100.00