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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200111-200201

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
1
10
11
0
1
11
12

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
2
0
53
55
0
1
10
11
2
1
63
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
8
8
0
8
83
92
0
8
92
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
3
0
80
83
0
2
15
17
3
2
95
100

hitrate: 0.833 hitrate: 0.152
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 1.00 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 55.00 0.17
Heidke skill score: 0.750 Heidke skill score: -0.273
true Heidke skill score: -0.091 true Heidke skill score: -0.024
Kuipers skill score: 0.750 Kuipers skill score: -0.273
true Kuipers skill score: -0.091 true Kuipers skill score: -0.230
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.833
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.156
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.043 -0.043
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.015 -0.009
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.909
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.159
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.091
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.091
samples: 12 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 18.18 %coverage: 100.00