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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200111-200201

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
2
0
1
7
8
0
1
9
10

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
2
56
59
0
1
7
8
1
3
63
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
20
20
0
10
70
80
0
10
90
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
3
84
88
0
1
10
12
1
4
94
100

hitrate: 0.700 hitrate: 0.134
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 2.00 0.89
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 19.67 0.13
Heidke skill score: 0.550 Heidke skill score: -0.299
true Heidke skill score: -0.154 true Heidke skill score: -0.020
Kuipers skill score: 0.550 Kuipers skill score: -0.299
true Kuipers skill score: -0.222 true Kuipers skill score: -0.153
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.700
threat score:
0.000 0.033 0.109
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.071 -0.071
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.011 -0.009
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.778
probability of detection:
0.000 0.667 0.111
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.125
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.966 0.125
samples: 10 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 14.93 %coverage: 100.00