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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200201-200203

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
2
3
26
25
54
4
27
25
56

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
5
6
1
12
3
26
25
54
8
32
26
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
2
2
0
4
5
46
45
96
7
48
45
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
8
9
2
18
5
39
38
82
12
48
39
100

hitrate: 0.464 hitrate: 0.470
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.07 2.16
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.38 2.08
Heidke skill score: 0.196 Heidke skill score: 0.205
true Heidke skill score: 0.030 true Heidke skill score: 0.100
Kuipers skill score: 0.196 Kuipers skill score: 0.205
true Kuipers skill score: 0.029 true Kuipers skill score: 0.100
threat score:
0.000 0.036 0.463
threat score:
0.000 0.158 0.455
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.001 0.030
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.006 0.111
probability of detection:
0.000 0.037 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.188 0.962
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.500 0.537
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.500 0.537
samples: 56 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 84.85 %coverage: 100.00