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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200201-200203

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
3
27
25
55
4
27
25
56

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
5
5
1
11
3
27
25
55
8
32
26
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
2
5
48
45
98
7
48
45
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
8
8
2
17
5
41
38
83
12
48
39
100

hitrate: 0.446 hitrate: 0.455
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.04 2.20
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.34 2.12
Heidke skill score: 0.170 Heidke skill score: 0.182
true Heidke skill score: -0.001 true Heidke skill score: 0.077
Kuipers skill score: 0.170 Kuipers skill score: 0.182
true Kuipers skill score: -0.001 true Kuipers skill score: 0.076
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.455
threat score:
0.000 0.132 0.446
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.018 0.015
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.010 0.097
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.156 0.962
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.545
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.545 0.545
samples: 56 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 84.85 %coverage: 100.00