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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200201-200203

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
2
2
26
24
52
3
27
24
54

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
6
6
2
14
2
26
24
52
8
32
26
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
2
2
0
4
4
48
44
96
6
50
44
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
9
9
3
21
3
39
36
79
12
48
39
100

hitrate: 0.463 hitrate: 0.455
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.07 2.17
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.44 2.00
Heidke skill score: 0.194 Heidke skill score: 0.182
true Heidke skill score: 0.030 true Heidke skill score: 0.070
Kuipers skill score: 0.194 Kuipers skill score: 0.182
true Kuipers skill score: 0.030 true Kuipers skill score: 0.069
threat score:
0.000 0.036 0.462
threat score:
0.000 0.150 0.444
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.031
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.024 0.105
probability of detection:
0.000 0.037 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.188 0.923
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.500 0.538
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.571 0.538
samples: 54 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 81.82 %coverage: 100.00