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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200201-200203

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
0
1
0
1
2
25
25
52
3
26
25
54

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
5
7
1
13
2
25
25
52
8
32
26
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
0
2
0
2
4
46
46
96
6
48
46
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
8
11
2
20
3
38
38
79
12
48
39
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.500
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.33 0.04 2.08
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.12 0.41 2.00
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.250
true Heidke skill score: 0.081 true Heidke skill score: 0.156
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.250
true Kuipers skill score: 0.080 true Kuipers skill score: 0.155
threat score:
0.333 0.038 0.481
threat score:
0.125 0.184 0.472
equitable threat score:
0.321 0.020 0.033
equitable threat score:
0.112 0.022 0.139
probability of detection:
0.333 0.038 1.000
probability of detection:
0.125 0.219 0.962
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.519
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.462 0.519
samples: 54 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 81.82 %coverage: 100.00