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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200201-200203

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
2
2
14
33
49
2
16
33
51

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
4
9
5
18
2
14
33
49
6
23
38
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
4
0
4
4
27
65
96
4
31
65
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
6
13
7
27
3
21
49
73
9
34
57
100

hitrate: 0.686 hitrate: 0.627
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.12 1.48
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.78 1.29
Heidke skill score: 0.529 Heidke skill score: 0.440
true Heidke skill score: 0.143 true Heidke skill score: 0.243
Kuipers skill score: 0.529 Kuipers skill score: 0.440
true Kuipers skill score: 0.109 true Kuipers skill score: 0.217
threat score:
0.000 0.125 0.673
threat score:
0.000 0.281 0.611
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.089 0.075
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.109 0.199
probability of detection:
0.000 0.125 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.391 0.868
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.327
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.500 0.327
samples: 51 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 76.12 %coverage: 100.00