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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200201-200203

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
11
30
41
0
11
30
41

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
6
12
8
26
0
11
30
41
6
23
38
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
27
73
100
0
27
73
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
9
18
12
39
0
16
45
61
9
34
57
100

hitrate: 0.732 hitrate: 0.627
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 1.37
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.13 1.08
Heidke skill score: 0.598 Heidke skill score: 0.440
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.282
Kuipers skill score: 0.598 Kuipers skill score: 0.440
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.265
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.732
threat score:
0.000 0.324 0.612
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.110 0.262
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.522 0.789
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.268
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.538 0.268
samples: 41 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 61.19 %coverage: 100.00