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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200201-200203

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
0
3
0
1
1
2
1
9
29
39
2
12
30
44

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
0
3
4
12
9
25
1
9
29
39
6
23
38
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
5
0
7
0
2
2
5
2
20
66
89
5
27
68
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
3
0
4
6
18
13
37
1
13
43
58
9
34
57
100

hitrate: 0.705 hitrate: 0.627
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.50 0.17 1.30
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 1.09 1.03
Heidke skill score: 0.557 Heidke skill score: 0.440
true Heidke skill score: 0.223 true Heidke skill score: 0.306
Kuipers skill score: 0.557 Kuipers skill score: 0.440
true Kuipers skill score: 0.185 true Kuipers skill score: 0.298
threat score:
0.250 0.077 0.725
threat score:
0.125 0.333 0.604
equitable threat score:
0.224 0.036 0.180
equitable threat score:
0.095 0.125 0.266
probability of detection:
0.500 0.083 0.967
probability of detection:
0.167 0.522 0.763
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.500 0.256
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.520 0.256
samples: 44 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 65.67 %coverage: 100.00