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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200201-200203

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
1
4
1
0
0
1
0
3
25
28
1
6
26
33

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
1
4
6
17
12
35
0
3
25
28
6
23
38
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
9
3
12
3
0
0
3
0
9
76
85
3
18
79
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
4
1
6
9
25
18
52
0
4
37
42
9
34
57
100

hitrate: 0.758 hitrate: 0.627
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
4.00 0.17 1.08
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.67 1.52 0.74
Heidke skill score: 0.636 Heidke skill score: 0.440
true Heidke skill score: 0.248 true Heidke skill score: 0.355
Kuipers skill score: 0.636 Kuipers skill score: 0.440
true Kuipers skill score: 0.231 true Kuipers skill score: 0.371
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.862
threat score:
0.000 0.415 0.610
equitable threat score:
-0.025 -0.027 0.424
equitable threat score:
-0.037 0.172 0.363
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.962
probability of detection:
0.000 0.739 0.658
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.107
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.514 0.107
samples: 33 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 49.25 %coverage: 100.00