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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200202-200204

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
2
1
0
3
11
29
15
55
13
30
15
58

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
5
4
2
11
11
29
15
55
16
33
17
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
3
2
0
5
19
50
26
95
22
52
26
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
8
6
3
17
17
44
23
83
24
50
26
100

hitrate: 0.276 hitrate: 0.288
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.10 3.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.33 3.24
Heidke skill score: -0.086 Heidke skill score: -0.068
true Heidke skill score: 0.005 true Heidke skill score: -0.014
Kuipers skill score: -0.086 Kuipers skill score: -0.068
true Kuipers skill score: 0.006 true Kuipers skill score: -0.016
threat score:
0.000 0.031 0.273
threat score:
0.000 0.100 0.263
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.018 0.019
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.043 0.019
probability of detection:
0.000 0.033 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.121 0.882
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.667 0.727
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.636 0.727
samples: 58 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 87.88 %coverage: 100.00