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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200202-200204

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
3
2
0
5
4
28
14
46
8
30
14
52

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
11
5
3
19
4
28
14
46
16
33
17
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
6
4
0
10
8
54
27
88
15
58
27
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
17
8
5
29
6
42
21
70
24
50
26
100

hitrate: 0.327 hitrate: 0.303
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.12 0.17 3.29
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.06 0.58 2.71
Heidke skill score: -0.010 Heidke skill score: -0.045
true Heidke skill score: 0.043 true Heidke skill score: -0.036
Kuipers skill score: -0.010 Kuipers skill score: -0.045
true Kuipers skill score: 0.053 true Kuipers skill score: -0.039
threat score:
0.125 0.061 0.304
threat score:
0.062 0.106 0.286
equitable threat score:
0.108 -0.029 0.048
equitable threat score:
0.048 -0.120 0.058
probability of detection:
0.125 0.067 1.000
probability of detection:
0.062 0.152 0.824
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.600 0.696
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.737 0.696
samples: 52 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 78.79 %coverage: 100.00