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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200202-200204

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
2
2
0
4
5
28
14
47
8
30
14
52

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
10
5
3
18
5
28
14
47
16
33
17
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
4
4
0
8
10
54
27
90
15
58
27
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
15
8
5
27
8
42
21
71
24
50
26
100

hitrate: 0.327 hitrate: 0.303
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.12 0.13 3.36
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.06 0.55 2.76
Heidke skill score: -0.010 Heidke skill score: -0.045
true Heidke skill score: 0.051 true Heidke skill score: -0.030
Kuipers skill score: -0.010 Kuipers skill score: -0.045
true Kuipers skill score: 0.063 true Kuipers skill score: -0.033
threat score:
0.125 0.062 0.298
threat score:
0.062 0.109 0.280
equitable threat score:
0.108 -0.010 0.039
equitable threat score:
0.048 -0.108 0.050
probability of detection:
0.125 0.067 1.000
probability of detection:
0.062 0.152 0.824
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.500 0.702
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.722 0.702
samples: 52 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 78.79 %coverage: 100.00