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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200202-200204

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
1
4
0
5
4
25
14
43
6
29
14
49

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
11
8
3
22
4
25
14
43
16
33
17
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
2
8
0
10
8
51
29
88
12
59
29
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
17
12
5
33
6
38
21
65
24
50
26
100

hitrate: 0.388 hitrate: 0.348
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.17 0.17 3.07
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.06 0.67 2.53
Heidke skill score: 0.082 Heidke skill score: 0.023
true Heidke skill score: 0.108 true Heidke skill score: 0.016
Kuipers skill score: 0.082 Kuipers skill score: 0.023
true Kuipers skill score: 0.134 true Kuipers skill score: 0.017
threat score:
0.167 0.133 0.326
threat score:
0.062 0.170 0.304
equitable threat score:
0.149 0.038 0.056
equitable threat score:
0.048 -0.083 0.084
probability of detection:
0.167 0.138 1.000
probability of detection:
0.062 0.242 0.824
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.200 0.674
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.636 0.674
samples: 49 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 74.24 %coverage: 100.00