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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200202-200204

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
0
4
0
4
3
16
22
41
4
20
22
46

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
9
9
7
25
3
16
22
41
13
25
29
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
0
9
0
9
7
35
48
89
9
43
48
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
13
13
10
37
4
24
33
61
19
37
43
100

hitrate: 0.587 hitrate: 0.478
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.25 0.20 1.86
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.08 1.00 1.41
Heidke skill score: 0.380 Heidke skill score: 0.216
true Heidke skill score: 0.227 true Heidke skill score: 0.119
Kuipers skill score: 0.380 Kuipers skill score: 0.216
true Kuipers skill score: 0.211 true Kuipers skill score: 0.111
threat score:
0.250 0.200 0.537
threat score:
0.077 0.220 0.458
equitable threat score:
0.233 0.124 0.112
equitable threat score:
0.063 -0.010 0.141
probability of detection:
0.250 0.200 1.000
probability of detection:
0.077 0.360 0.759
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.463
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.640 0.463
samples: 46 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 68.66 %coverage: 100.00