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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200202-200204

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
0
2
0
2
1
8
19
28
2
10
19
31

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
11
17
10
38
1
8
19
28
13
25
29
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
0
3
0
6
0
6
3
26
61
90
6
32
61
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
16
25
15
57
1
12
28
42
19
37
43
100

hitrate: 0.710 hitrate: 0.552
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 0.20 1.47
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.08 1.52 0.97
Heidke skill score: 0.565 Heidke skill score: 0.328
true Heidke skill score: 0.314 true Heidke skill score: 0.259
Kuipers skill score: 0.565 Kuipers skill score: 0.328
true Kuipers skill score: 0.258 true Kuipers skill score: 0.247
threat score:
0.500 0.200 0.679
threat score:
0.077 0.370 0.500
equitable threat score:
0.483 0.145 0.170
equitable threat score:
0.063 0.089 0.266
probability of detection:
0.500 0.200 1.000
probability of detection:
0.077 0.680 0.655
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.321
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.553 0.321
samples: 31 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 46.27 %coverage: 100.00