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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200202-200204

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
2
1
1
4
0
0
9
9
2
1
10
13

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
13
25
20
58
0
0
9
9
13
25
29
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
15
8
8
31
0
0
69
69
15
8
77
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
19
37
30
87
0
0
13
13
19
37
43
100

hitrate: 0.769 hitrate: 0.507
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 4.00 0.90
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.32 0.31
Heidke skill score: 0.654 Heidke skill score: 0.261
true Heidke skill score: 0.480 true Heidke skill score: 0.204
Kuipers skill score: 0.654 Kuipers skill score: 0.261
true Kuipers skill score: 0.562 true Kuipers skill score: 0.199
threat score:
0.000 0.250 0.900
threat score:
0.000 0.431 0.310
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.188 0.675
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.092 0.203
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.900
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.310
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.750 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.569 0.000
samples: 13 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 19.40 %coverage: 100.00