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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200203-200205

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
7
0
0
7
3
2
6
11
10
2
6
18

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
22
23
10
55
3
2
6
11
25
25
16
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
39
0
0
39
17
11
33
61
56
11
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
33
35
15
83
5
3
9
17
38
38
24
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.439
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.50 1.83
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.20 0.69
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: 0.159
true Heidke skill score: 0.115 true Heidke skill score: 0.129
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: 0.159
true Kuipers skill score: 0.152 true Kuipers skill score: 0.127
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.545
threat score:
0.000 0.404 0.286
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.095 0.318
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.060 0.182
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.920 0.375
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.455
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.582 0.455
samples: 18 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 27.27 %coverage: 100.00