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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200203-200205

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
11
0
0
11
0
2
7
9
11
2
7
20

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
25
23
9
57
0
2
7
9
25
25
16
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
55
0
0
55
0
10
35
45
55
10
35
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
38
35
14
86
0
3
11
14
38
38
24
100

hitrate: 0.350 hitrate: 0.455
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 5.50 1.29
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.28 0.56
Heidke skill score: 0.025 Heidke skill score: 0.182
true Heidke skill score: 0.175 true Heidke skill score: 0.147
Kuipers skill score: 0.025 Kuipers skill score: 0.182
true Kuipers skill score: 0.243 true Kuipers skill score: 0.144
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.778
threat score:
0.000 0.390 0.389
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.092 0.658
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.038 0.305
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.920 0.438
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.222
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.596 0.222
samples: 20 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 30.30 %coverage: 100.00