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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200203-200205

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
8
0
0
8
1
3
6
10
9
3
6
18

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
24
22
10
56
1
3
6
10
25
25
16
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
44
0
0
44
6
17
33
56
50
17
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
36
33
15
85
2
5
9
15
38
38
24
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.424
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.67 1.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.24 0.62
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: 0.136
true Heidke skill score: 0.100 true Heidke skill score: 0.103
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: 0.136
true Kuipers skill score: 0.121 true Kuipers skill score: 0.101
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.600
threat score:
0.000 0.373 0.300
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.138 0.400
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.021 0.203
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.880 0.375
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.400
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.607 0.400
samples: 18 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 27.27 %coverage: 100.00