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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200203-200205

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
9
0
0
9
0
3
6
9
9
3
6
18

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
25
22
10
57
0
3
6
9
25
25
16
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
50
0
0
50
0
17
33
50
50
17
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
38
33
15
86
0
5
9
14
38
38
24
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.424
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.00 1.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.28 0.56
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: 0.136
true Heidke skill score: 0.111 true Heidke skill score: 0.100
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: 0.136
true Kuipers skill score: 0.136 true Kuipers skill score: 0.098
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.667
threat score:
0.000 0.367 0.316
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.143 0.500
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.011 0.227
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.880 0.375
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.614 0.333
samples: 18 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 27.27 %coverage: 100.00