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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200203-200205

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 7.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
6
0
0
6
1
5
7
13
7
5
7
19

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
24
21
9
54
1
5
7
13
25
26
16
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
32
0
0
32
5
26
37
68
37
26
37
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
36
31
13
81
1
7
10
19
37
39
24
100

hitrate: 0.368 hitrate: 0.418
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.20 1.86
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.08 0.81
Heidke skill score: 0.053 Heidke skill score: 0.127
true Heidke skill score: 0.050 true Heidke skill score: 0.092
Kuipers skill score: 0.053 Kuipers skill score: 0.127
true Kuipers skill score: 0.050 true Kuipers skill score: 0.090
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.538
threat score:
0.000 0.356 0.318
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.168 0.269
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.001 0.206
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.808 0.438
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.462
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.611 0.462
samples: 19 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 28.36 %coverage: 100.00