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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200203-200205

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
4
0
0
4
3
4
7
14
7
4
7
18

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
22
22
9
53
3
4
7
14
25
26
16
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
22
0
0
22
17
22
39
78
39
22
39
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
33
33
13
79
4
6
10
21
37
39
24
100

hitrate: 0.389 hitrate: 0.433
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.00 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.04 0.88
Heidke skill score: 0.083 Heidke skill score: 0.149
true Heidke skill score: 0.057 true Heidke skill score: 0.118
Kuipers skill score: 0.083 Kuipers skill score: 0.149
true Kuipers skill score: 0.057 true Kuipers skill score: 0.116
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.500
threat score:
0.000 0.386 0.304
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.125 0.182
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.039 0.186
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.846 0.438
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.585 0.500
samples: 18 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 26.87 %coverage: 100.00