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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200203-200205

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
6
2
0
8
1
2
5
8
7
4
5
16

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
24
24
11
59
1
2
5
8
25
26
16
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
38
13
0
50
6
13
31
50
44
25
31
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
36
36
16
88
1
3
7
12
37
39
24
100

hitrate: 0.438 hitrate: 0.433
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.00 1.60
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.27 0.50
Heidke skill score: 0.156 Heidke skill score: 0.149
true Heidke skill score: 0.217 true Heidke skill score: 0.099
Kuipers skill score: 0.156 Kuipers skill score: 0.149
true Kuipers skill score: 0.241 true Kuipers skill score: 0.096
threat score:
0.000 0.200 0.625
threat score:
0.000 0.393 0.263
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.455
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.029 0.181
probability of detection:
0.000 0.500 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.923 0.312
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.750 0.375
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.593 0.375
samples: 16 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 23.88 %coverage: 100.00