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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200203-200205

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
5
3
5
13
5
3
5
13

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
20
23
11
54
5
3
5
13
25
26
16
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
38
23
38
100
38
23
38
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
30
34
16
81
7
4
7
19
37
39
24
100

hitrate: 0.385 hitrate: 0.418
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 2.60
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.08 0.81
Heidke skill score: 0.077 Heidke skill score: 0.127
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.092
Kuipers skill score: 0.077 Kuipers skill score: 0.127
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.090
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.385
threat score:
0.000 0.404 0.208
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.057 0.091
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.885 0.312
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.615
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.574 0.615
samples: 13 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 19.40 %coverage: 100.00