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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200204-200206

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
4
5
1
0
4
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
13
21
28
62
1
0
4
5
14
21
32
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
20
0
80
100
20
0
80
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
19
31
42
93
1
0
6
7
21
31
48
100

hitrate: 0.800 hitrate: 0.373
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 -- 1.25
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.95 0.16
Heidke skill score: 0.700 Heidke skill score: 0.060
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.070
Kuipers skill score: 0.700 Kuipers skill score: 0.060
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.075
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.800
threat score:
0.000 0.339 0.121
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.037 0.053
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.125
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.200
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.661 0.200
samples: 5 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 7.46 %coverage: 100.00