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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200204-200206

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
2
0
0
2
2
2
0
2
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
14
21
30
65
0
0
2
2
14
21
32
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
50
0
0
50
0
0
50
50
50
0
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
21
31
45
97
0
0
3
3
21
31
48
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.343
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 -- 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.10 0.06
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.015
true Heidke skill score: 0.333 true Heidke skill score: 0.037
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.015
true Kuipers skill score: 0.500 true Kuipers skill score: 0.040
threat score:
0.000 0.000 1.000
threat score:
0.000 0.323 0.062
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 1.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.014 0.034
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.062
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.677 0.000
samples: 4 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 5.97 %coverage: 100.00