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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200204-200206

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
2
0
0
1
1
2
0
1
3

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
14
21
31
66
0
0
1
1
14
21
32
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
67
0
0
67
0
0
33
33
67
0
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
21
31
46
99
0
0
1
1
21
31
48
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.328
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 -- 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.14 0.03
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: -0.007
true Heidke skill score: 0.250 true Heidke skill score: 0.018
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: -0.007
true Kuipers skill score: 0.500 true Kuipers skill score: 0.020
threat score:
0.000 0.000 1.000
threat score:
0.000 0.318 0.031
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 1.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.007 0.017
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.031
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.682 0.000
samples: 3 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 4.48 %coverage: 100.00