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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200204-200206

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
1
0
2
3
2
0
2
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
10
22
32
64
1
0
2
3
11
22
34
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
25
0
0
25
25
0
50
75
50
0
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
15
33
48
96
1
0
3
4
16
33
51
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.358
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 -- 1.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.91 0.09
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.037
true Heidke skill score: 0.200 true Heidke skill score: 0.033
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.037
true Kuipers skill score: 0.250 true Kuipers skill score: 0.036
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.667
threat score:
0.000 0.344 0.057
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.333
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.023 0.014
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.059
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.656 0.333
samples: 4 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 5.97 %coverage: 100.00